November Midterm Elections 2026: The Ballot, the Battlegrounds and the Stock Market Theory That Won't Die

Midterm elections fall halfway through a president's four-year term. There is no presidential race on the 2026 ballot, but control of both chambers of Congress, most governorships and thousands of state legislative seats are decided on the same day.

US elections are run by the states, not by a single national agency. That is why the rules for registering, voting early, voting by mail and showing ID differ depending on where a voter lives.

1. Registration. Deadlines vary by state, and some states allow same-day registration. The official federal starting point is vote.gov, which links to each state's election office.
2. Early and mail voting. Most states offer some form of early in-person or mail voting. Windows and return deadlines are set by each state.
3. Election Day. Polls open and close at times set by each state. Results reported on election night are unofficial.
4. Counting and certification. States finish counting mail and provisional ballots, run any recounts their laws require, and certify official results over the following weeks, generally in late November and December.
5. Taking office. The new Congress convenes on January 3, 2027. Governors are inaugurated on dates set by each state, mostly in January.

These are the Senate races most analysts rate as competitive, with the nominees as of September 2026. The 2026 Senate map mostly defends Democratic seats, which has historically favoured Republicans, but several Republican-held seats are now rated tossups or worse.

Special elections. Florida votes to fill the rest of Marco Rubio's term after he became Secretary of State (appointed Republican Ashley Moody faces Democrat Angie Nixon). Ohio votes to fill JD Vance's former seat after he became Vice President.

Retiring senators. Democrats: Dick Durbin (Illinois), Gary Peters (Michigan), Jeanne Shaheen (New Hampshire) and Tina Smith (Minnesota). Republicans: Tommy Tuberville (Alabama), Mitch McConnell (Kentucky), Steve Daines (Montana), Cynthia Lummis (Wyoming), Joni Ernst (Iowa), Thom Tillis (North Carolina) and Alan Armstrong (Oklahoma, appointed in 2026 and ineligible to run).

New Hampshire's open Senate seat comes as the state argues over a data centre moratorium. See our New Hampshire data center construction guide for the Bow proposal and the power-cost debate.

Big-state governors leaving because of term limits include Gavin Newsom (California), Gretchen Whitmer (Michigan), Jared Polis (Colorado), Ron DeSantis (Florida) and Brian Kemp (Georgia). Several of their successors will shape how their states handle the surge in data centre power demand.

For the first time in decades, several states redrew their congressional maps in the middle of a decade. That changes the math for the House before a single vote is cast.

• Texas passed a new map drawing about five additional Republican-leaning districts, and the US Supreme Court allowed it to stand.
• California voters responded by approving new districts that eliminate about five Republican-held seats.
• Florida enacted a new map in May 2026 expected to add Republican seats. North Carolina redrew its 1st District, and Ohio, Alabama, Louisiana and Tennessee adopted new maps after the Supreme Court's Louisiana v. Callais ruling.
• Virginia announced plans to redraw. Efforts in Missouri, Indiana, Kansas, Maryland and New York failed or were blocked, leaving existing maps in place.

The pattern is one of the most reliable in American politics: the president's party almost always loses House seats in a midterm. Since 1934 it has gained seats only three times, in 1934, 1998 and 2002. Voters use midterms as a check on whoever holds the White House, and the result is often divided government.

Markets have a view on that too. As the next section shows, the months after a midterm have historically been some of the strongest for US stocks, and one common explanation is that divided government makes sweeping policy changes less likely.

Search any trading forum in the autumn of a midterm year and you will find the theory: the largest stock market moves in history are timed around the midterm elections, whether by coincidence, by political calendars or by something more deliberate. Here is what the data actually supports.

What is real: the midterm cycle

• Since 1938, the S&P 500 has risen in the 12 months after a midterm election 95% of the time (Fidelity).
• The midterm year itself has averaged about 5%, compared with about 14% in the year after (Fidelity). Midterm-year returns have ranged from drawdowns of 27% to gains of nearly 40%.
• Midterm years since 1961 have seen an average peak-to-trough decline of 19%. In 2026 the drop was about 9% in March, and the S&P 500 was up roughly 14% for the year by mid-August.
• The usual explanation is simple: uncertainty builds before the vote and fades once the balance of power in Congress is known.

What is not real: the biggest single-day moves

This year the uncertainty is unusually high. CNN reported on August 30, 2026 that speculation about possible federal intervention in the midterms, from a national election emergency declaration to limits on mail-in voting now tied up in lawsuits, has made “the country as a whole more nervous” (CNN). If that uncertainty lingers past election night, it could weigh on markets in the very week the Anthropic IPO is reportedly targeting.

Anthropic, the company behind Claude, confidentially submitted a draft S-1 to the SEC on June 1, 2026. On September 4, Reuters reported that the company is expected to start marketing the offering in mid-October at the earliest and to list days before the November midterm elections. Anthropic has not announced a date or a price. Our Anthropic IPO date and price tracker follows every filing.

That timing has not gone unnoticed. Many online commentators and market watchers suspect the overlap is no coincidence, arguing that the largest listing ever attempted landing in the same week as the November midterm elections looks deliberately timed. There is no public evidence of coordination: the listing window was reported by Reuters, and Anthropic has not announced a date, so for now the midterms and the Anthropic IPO are simply coinciding.

Why the first trade could be the biggest money move ever made in seconds

When a newly listed stock opens, the opening trade instantly puts a public price on every share the company has. At a valuation near $1 trillion or more, Anthropic's opening print would put a price on more value in a single moment than almost any listing in history, and it would do so during the week the market is digesting the balance of power in Congress. If the listing lands just before the vote, it becomes a real-time test of risk appetite. If it slips to just after, it could collide with the post-election relief rally the midterm data describes.

Why does a Canadian crypto and data centre site care? The AI build-out behind Anthropic's valuation runs on power, and data centre power rules are now campaign issues in states from New Hampshire to Michigan. Our free AI data centre cost model shows what that power costs in every US state and nine Canadian provinces, and our Canada AI data centre boom page covers the build-out north of the border.

• 2026 United States Senate elections (composition, nominees, specials, retirements)
• 2026 United States House elections (composition, redistricting, generic ballot)
• 2026 United States gubernatorial elections
• Ballotpedia: United States Congress elections, 2026
• CNN: Last-minute doomsday scenarios for the 2026 election (Aug 30, 2026)
• Fidelity: How might midterm elections impact the stock market?
• Anthropic: confidential draft S-1 submission (June 1, 2026)
• vote.gov (official US voter registration information)

Race ratings, nominees and polling are as of September 26, 2026 and will change. This page is independent analysis and not investment or voting advice.